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My Take on the Wimbledon Draw

My Take on the Wimbledon Draw

Well it’s here, my favourite Grand Slam of the year (well I am a Brit so what do you expect?) and Roger actually got a Nadal like draw. There’s no real danger players that you can really see him losing to and you could even expect him to make the QF/SF without dropping a set. Of course he still has to perform on the day but if he played to even 75% of his ability he should be able to coast it.

Let’s take a look:

Roger Federer’s Quarter, Top Half of the Draw

Because we all know the draws are done with a double headed coin, Roger was once again placed in Djokovic’s half and they’re seeded to meet in the Semi finals as per usual.

Roger will start his tournament against a spanish leftie, Rafael Nadal Albert Ramos who is ranked at 43 in the world. He’s only ever won one match at Grand Slam level and that was on, as you may have guessed, clay. He did take a set off Tomas Berdych at the Australian Open this year but despite that I think this should be a routine match for Roger and the perfect way to start his Wimbledon campaign. Typically Spanish players adapt poorly to grass, and from what I can tell Ramos hasn’t played a warm up event on the surface so all his preparation is just practice. Update: Thanks to one of my readers who left a comment below letting me know that Ramos played Eastbourne and lost in the first round to Fognini (6-7, 7-6, 2-6). I guess that just confirms he is nothing to worry about, Fognini isn’t great on grass either and beat him fairly comfortably. Because of Ramos’s inexperience coupled with his ranking I predict Roger in straights, 6-2, 6-2, 6-4.

Rogers Seeded Opponents

  • 2nd Round: Llodra
  • 3rd Round: Benneteau (I think Muller will beat Benneteau in round one)
  • 4th Round: Simon/Verdasco
  • QF: Tipsarevic/Isner
  • SF: Djokovic
  • F: Nadal

As you can see above, if the draw goes to plan (they never do), then Roger has a very good chance of making the Semi’s. In someways it maybe too easy for him but I guess Isner could be a testing quarter final if he were to make it. I won’t get too far ahead of myself but I’d definitely like to see Fed and Djoker face off on grass for the first time, it’s about time we saw them play on this surface so hopefully it happens.

Novak Djokovic’s Quarter, Top Half of the Draw

Djoker got a slightly tougher draw and strangely enough his 1st round opponent is a former slam winner himself, Juan Carlos Ferrero. These two have only met twice before and the H2H is tied at 1-1. Arguably not a huge deal because they haven’t played since 2007 and that was long before Djokovic played like he does today. Ferrero isn’t bad on grass making 2 Wimbledon quarter finals but I see Novak getting the job done pretty easily. Ferrero maybe able to get a set should he start fast and catch Djokovic off guard but I think that’s the best he can hope for.

Djokovic’s Seeded Opponent

  • 2nd Round: Harrison
  • 3rd Round: Stepanek
  • 4th Round: Monaco (no way is he making it to the 4th round)
  • QF: Berdych/Almagro
  • SF: Federer
  • F: Dull

I pretty much make Djoker a lock for the semi finals, there’s maybe 1/2 tough matches in there for him but I think he’s just got too much in the tank to not make the latter stages.

Rafael Nadal’s Quarter, Bottom Half of the Draw

Everyone has been saying Nadal got quite a tough draw because he’s up against players that have beaten him previously, which is true, but they haven’t beaten him in Grand Slams over 5 sets which is a totally different ball game.

First up for Dull is Tomaz Bellucci, this guys a total clay specialist but not only that has had a pretty crap year even by his own low standards (to think I thought he might make week 2 at the French?!). That one will be straights for Rafa, 6-2, 6-1, 6-3.

Nadal is then set to meet Dodig, that won’t be tricky I don’t think, and then it’s likely to be Kohlschreiber or Tommy Haas. Ok these guys are good on grass, but no chance does Kohlschreiber have the mental strength to take down Rafa in 5 and I don’t think Tommy has the legs. He was covered in about 4 rolls of tape in Halle so over 5 sets against the most physical player on tour – zero chance.

Nadal’s Seeded Opponents

  • 2nd Round: Ivan Dodig
  • 3rd Round: Kohlschreiber
  • 4th Round: Lopez / Dolgopolov
  • QF: Tsonga / Fish
  • SF: Murray
  • F: Djokovic

I think Nadal is gonna be tough to stop from making the final here, grass can always throw surprises though so clearly he’s not unbeatable on the surface but he’s going to be still high on confidence after the French.

Elsewhere in the draw

Outside the big three it was probably Murray who got the toughest draw, he faces Davydenko in round 1, and could meet Kevin Anderson in round 3 followed by Milos Raonic in the 4th round. Even though this is probably the most objective blog in the world ;) I’m hoping Mugray loses early. Really it’s a win win tournament I think because he either loses early, or loses to Nadal in the semi finals. I’d also make sure he plays all his matches on the outside courts but that’s just me.

Interesting first round matches

Goffin vs. Tomic

Tomic sort of put himself on the map at last years Wimbledon making the Quarters but since then he’s done quite well to erase himself. He’s been drawn against Roger Federer’s protege David Goffin.

Everybody was likening Goffin to Agassi at the French where he made the 4th round before losing to Roger and if he plays like he did on the clay then he might be a tough test for the Aussie. Goffin certainly goes for his shots on both sides whereas Tomic is more measured, put those two together on grass then it could be quite good to watch.

Muller vs. Benneteau

Muller is mentally weak, he should have beaten Nadal on grass twice now but managed to choke but he’s my pick to beat Benneteau in the first round, and in fact could meet Roger in round 3. I think this will go 5 with the Luxembourgian coming out on top.

Anderson vs. Dimitrov

Everyone is calling Dimitrov Baby Fed, I’m still not so sure but he had a good week at Queens before losing to Nalbandian in the Semi’s. He beat Anderson that week so this one is certainly an interesting match, I think Anderson probably will win this time though over 5 sets. Dimitrov clearly has talent and comes across a likeable guy so I hope he does well but to date he’s all hype.

Nalbandian vs. Tipsarevic

If Dave hadn’t got defaulted at Queens then I’d be picking him over Tipsarevic on grass all day long, but the fact he did is what makes this match interesting. Nalbandian is one of the most talented ball strikers on tour and he’s good on grass so he should give Tipsarevic a lot of trouble. However whether or not last weeks goings on effected him mentally, or whether crowd get on his back should make this match quite good to watch. If Dave wins the first set then I pick him to go through. If the crowd get on his back I can see him doing something equally crazy as he doesn’t strike me as the type of guy that’s a quick learner when it comes to these kinda things.

Haas vs. Kohlschreiber

These two just met in Halle with Haas coming out on top and this one is easily going to be the most pleasing on the eye of the opening round matches. Both players come out and play shots, both have great 1 handed backhand and both are well adapted to playing aggressive tennis on grass. It’s quite a tough match to call is more than likely to be 4 or 5 sets.

My Upset Predictions

I think there will be a few, so here goes:

  • Mayer to beat Monaco
  • Falla to beat Isner
  • Stahkovsky to beat Stepanek

My other prediction is that all British players exluding Murray will lose first round. My threat for the second week is Philip Petzschner.

If you want to check out the draw in full you can by following this link: http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/draws/ms/index.html

How do I rate Federer’s chances?

Iv’e always thought this, along with the US Open was Rogers best chance for a slam this year, even though he lost in Halle my opinion hasn’t changed.

All the talk is that Roger got a pretty easy draw, which yes, is a good thing, but I don’t think the draw was ever likely to be the main problem, the problem is as always, he has to face both Djokovic and Nadal to win the tournament. I think Roger will most certainly make the semi’s and from then on it’s impossible to call. It’s about time he met Djokovic on grass and after getting his ass whooped in the French Open semi’s against him surely it will be his perogative to give Djoker a real thrashing.

If Roger serves well and moves well then he has more than a good chance of winning the trophy. He coasted to the Quarters last year before mentally going missing against Tsonga so I hope he can play similar tennis to last year but maintain it for the course of 2 weeks. He’s looked sharp all year barring 1 or 2 matches so to fall short at Wimbledon would be disappointing.

I’m not making any stupid predictions just yet saying he’s a lock for the title, and plan to take it match by match, and I will also give predictions on a match by match basis. All I will say is there’s a lot on the line, the number 1 ranking, more history and all of it in an olympic year – Roger has a habit of rewriting history books and I’m sure he has something more to add.

I will be back on Monday with my report of the Ramos match.

Photo credit: Simon Shawcross

About Jonathan

Huge fan of Roger Federer - I'll pretty much try and watch all his matches from Grand Slam level right down to ATP 250. When I'm not watching or tweeting about tennis I play regularly myself and use this blog to share my thoughts on Fed and tennis in general.

45 comments

  1. I think his draw is a bit tricky marathon guys & Tipsaravic

  2. Hi. I’ve begun to follow your blog religiously since I stumbled across it. I have to say I stop by regularly to see if there’s been an update. Love what you’ve done with it- layout-wise. My first of hopefully many more positive comments in the future. Gotta say- great job. Keep up the phenomenal work. Hope Roger can take this one. Not that he has anything to prove, but the championship trophy can ensure so many things for him, without having to hope for other permutations and combinations to line up in his favour. And what better place and way to win back the Number 1 rank.

    • Hey Gaurav thanks for leaving a comment and really glad you like my blog!

      I hope so too, he has gotten a nice draw, but he still has to overcome his two biggest rivals to win it. I’m confident he can do it, just has to be stay focused and be confident. Either way I hope him and Djoker meet on grass, first time they will have played on it so should be interesting.

      I’ll be posting regularly throughout Wimbledon so looking forward to your comments on Rogers matches should you leave any.

      Cheers,

      Jonathan

  3. Absolutely agree with all of your statements, except for one: there’s no way Petzschner makes it to the 2nd week. I think we should have an eye on Kohli, he looked pretty much in good shape in Halle. Speaking of Kohli: his first rounder vs Tommy might become a ‘classic’, since Tommy was on the winning side in Halle and the two got some unfinished business – they’re not the best of friends since that Davis Cup incident, should be fun to watch. By the way: I saw the Kohli – Nadal match live in Halle, might have been his best ever performance, would love to see a rematch between those two in Wimbledon. And Roger… 17-7-1-286!

    • Yo!

      Haha I picked Petz to do ok at Halle and you said he wouldn’t and he lost first round so you maybe right again!

      I think Kohli will beat Haas, but not sure he can maintain a level over 5 sets in multiple matches.

      I tried to find you on facebook man but couldn’t, did you get a picture on Roger Federer Allee? Bet watching Kohli beat Nadal was awesome. Did you see Roger too?

      • Yeah, I got a picture of the street sign. I was there on Friday, quarterfinal day, which had a great line-up: Youzhny – Stepanek, Nadal – Kohli, Roger – Raonic, Haas – Berdych. Roger’s match was SO hard to enjoy, Raonic hit about 30 aces, man I got so mad. Just saw the end of Tommy’s match, I was busy waiting and making my way through a HUGE crowd – but finally I got an autograph of Roger. Just uploaded a picture on your FB timeline. Too bad it’s a Head ball, but the Wilson balls were so freaking expensive

      • Yeah you picked a great day to watch! The Raonic match was annoying but that tie break at the end was sweet and worth sticking around for, sweet forehand passing shot to get the double mini break.

        Got your pic, shared it on my timeline! Haha I know man, they are like $20-30 at the US Open. Crazy. Should give em out for free…

  4. It’s funny, I see Nadal making the final too, not because I think he’s that good on grass, but because grass is so damn slow. If it were fast like it was supposed to be, Nadal would not have two Wimby titles. Look how he struggles on “fast clay” or how Federer obliterates him on fast hardcourts. What are you doing Wimbledon? Aren’t there enough slow courts on Tour already?

    • Nadal is just intense on all surfaces which is why he’s dangerous in most tournaments, he won US which is still pretty fast…

      I think the slower grass just helps him that little bit, hopefully not enough to sway match ups in his favour. Guess we will see how it plays. If its silly slow and bouncing shoulder height then he’s gotten lucky.

  5. Johnny / Viruzzz in MTF

    Okay… So Wimbledon. The most exciting tournament in the world.
    I’m pretty positive about this… I mean, Roger will be over-motivated to win the whole thing.

    And… Besides the 3-set loss vs Djokovic, some people don’t remember he was break up in the first 2 sets, I think Rog lost the match because of himself, and that won’t happen here.

    Call me a blind-fan, but I have so many hopes on this one…

    But whatevarrrr, it’s GRAND SLAM TIME!!!

    • Hey Johnny,

      Hope you’re right! I have a good feeling too, as long as he plays some good stuff and leaves everything out on court then I’ll be happy!

      Allez Roger!

  6. In my opinion that’s a tricky draw…Llodra, Muller (or Julien), Isner, big serves…and of course Simon…but I’m gonna trust you haha

    • Haha I think it’s fine. Llodra is tricky sometimes but I think Roger will pass him all day long. Isner of course has the ability to serve his way to wins but I think Roger can handle him.

      Simon – tricky for Roger before, but on grass I’m not sure, I doubt he will make it that far anyway…

  7. Sid TheCookieThief

    Has anyone noticed how all the big-serving-see-ball-hit guys are in Murray’s quarter? I smell a conspiracy :) Not that I am complaining. I’m just happy they are not in Roger’s quarter.

  8. Sid TheCookieThief

    Ha ha! I heard someone comment “Federer is the greatest blue clay player of all time!”. Which means Federer will remain the only undefeated player on blue clay. Not even Nadal can boast of that record on red clay :D

  9. Hi, I checked up on Ramos, because Roger has never played him before – it seems he did actually play in Eastbourne this year but lost in the first round to Fognini (6-7, 7-6, 2-6) – two tie-breaks (gulp!). Hopefully, it will be a bit easier than that for Roger for his first match.
    There are a fair few lefties in Roger’s quarter – draw Gods granting practice for when/if he gets to the final ?? ;) – Allez Rogi!
    btw, I do like your blog very much – thanks for your effort in it!

    • Hey Puffin,

      Ah good spot! I did have a quick look but I missed that, The Fog sucks on grass I think so hopefully that just confirms Roger will be able to win easily.

      Glad you like my blog too, allez Roger!

      Jonathan

      Oh and I updated the post with your info, thanks :)

    • Sid TheCookieThief

      Very interesting observation. Yes, the lefties will definitely prepare Roger well with those patterns if he were to make the final. I think grass will suit Roger vs. Novak in the SF (if he gets there). Will be tough but Roger will pull it out. I see a Roger-Nadal final though I have a sneaky feeling Nadal might be upset before the SF.

  10. I like his draw. Agreed – should make semis at least and I really want him to play Nole, since they haven’t met on grass yet. I like his chances if that happens. I also hope Tsonga’s finger is okay and that he gets through his first matches relatively easy so that he can put up a good fight against Nadal – and maybe pull an upset..

    Fed seems very focused, which is a good sign. I’ve no doubt he’ll give it his all. Hope that’s enough.

    Good interviews with Annacone here:
    1) http://www.thetennisspace.com/off-court/wimbledon-exclusive-interview-with-federers-coach/
    2) http://www.thetennisspace.com/on-court/federers-coach-rogers-feeling-good-in-body-and-mind/

    Oh, and I’m with Rocko when it comes to Petzschner ;)

  11. As I know this is site or blog where we talk and cheer for Roger! It is not correct for all of us putting Djokovic as an opponent of Nadal in the Final! Sorry, but I think that I am right! :D

    • Sid TheCookieThief

      LOL Completely agree. I want to pass a resolution:

      Anyone even remotely predicting a Djoker-Dull final should be summarily banned from this forum*.

      All those in favor, say, “Yea” :)

      *including the owner of this forum

    • Those 2 are the favourites though, 1 + 2 in the world so you have to think it could happen. I think Roger can beat Djoker on grass!

  12. I want Federer to win this grand slam. If he doesn’t it’ll be tough for him to win another grand slam. (Small chance that he will be able to win the US Open)

  13. Falla to upset Isner?! Come on, have you seen Falla’s latest performances? Just poor, besides he’s been struggling with injuries. I’d be hugely surprised if he even manages to take a set off Isner!

  14. I have a Q how they make courts fast or slow ??

    • They changed the grass in 2001 to 100% rye instead of a mix which slows it down and makes the ball bounce higher. Also the soil is firm at Wimbledon which makes it bounce higher, means rallies are longer. Here’s a video comparing Roger’s serves from 2003 and 2008, 10mph slower when it reaches the returner.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soJ_FVnijAw

      I think also they make the balls slightly heavier too which makes it slower.

  15. since it is heart and mind thing , my heart says Nadal will not make the final but mind says he will
    THANK YOU for this amazing blog
    come on Fed. get # 1 back

  16. Oh yeah, I like that last sentence: “Roger has a habit of rewriting history books and I’m sure he has something more to add.”
    I’m looking forward to the match against Llodra- He is a funny man with a funny play! My countryman Muller won’t have any chance just like Simon.
    The only tricky match could be the one against Isner. The semi-final against the Djoker will definitely be amazing where Roger comes out as the winner!
    That Nadal reaches the final, I’m not sure. Yes, he is in top shape, but I think that he’ll lose in the QF against Tsonga.
    And then, Wimbledon regains its King Roger Federer.

    • Hey,

      I’m not sure Isner will make it. Muller aint bad on grass though…

      Hopefully Tsonga’s finger has healed and he makes it and plays like he did against Fed last year.

      Allez!

  17. Hello All, great comments from everyone!

    Well, I am going to stick my neck on the line and predict a record-equalling 7th Wimbledon for our Roger. And I believe I speak with both my heart and head.Look at the factors involved: Roger has been playing at a consistently high level since US open last year with the exception of the recent FrenchOpen ( but still got to the Semis playing poorly by his standards! ) I honestly believe his heart was not in it and perhaps even might go so far as to say he lost to Djokovic on pupose, or at least to a degree.Roger has failed to get to a Wimbledon final in three years and this MUST hurt him, his favourite grand slam, where it all began for him in 2003. He will be ENORMOUSLY motivated to get to the final and to give himself one huge chance of then winning it. Yes, Isner ( if they meet ) and Djokovic ( if they meet ) will be tough but just you watch a fired-up Federer in these matches. As to the final, if Nadal is not there, Roger will win for sure. BUT, even if Nadal does make it to the final, I think destiny awaits our Roger and he will cement his place in history. Of course, I may be completely wrong but my heart and head are very much in tandem on this…….

  18. It seems like Ferrer is flying under the radar at the moment. What do you think of him? To me he’s a consistent player and is in form at the moment.

    Keep up the good work, cheers!

    • Hey Adrian,

      Not sure, maybe an outside chance to make the Quarters? He just won a tourney on grass but I don’t think he’s that good on the surface. Think he could lose first week just as easily…

      Jonathan

  19. OK Roger is not winning Wimbledon. Even if he gets by Joker he will not beat Nadal. And I am looking for Joker to beat Fed in the semis. Sure, Roger reigns on grass, but after his miserable performance agains Djokovic at the French, not only will Joker be confident, but Fed will b unsure of himself.

    I saw Djokovic with tape on his elbow. All of the preceding is assuming Novak stays healthy

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